Skip to main content

Has crime got you worried? Uh oh, its worse than you think

Chances are you've been talking a lot about crime lately.

What with a triple shooting in Transcona and a teenager stabbed in a public park this week, shots fired as two ethnic groups faced off in Osborne Village last week moments before one man was stabbed to death on the street, and a summer of arsons spreading fear throughout Fort Rouge and St. James.

No wonder we're the violent crime capital of the country according to Stats Canada.

What you don't know, is that it's much, much worse than you think.

Statistics Canada divides its annual crime stats into two parts. There's the crime severity index and the violent crime severity index, which get confusing if you don't speak Bureaucrat.

The crime severity index is the number of crimes reported to police in a city and the violent crime severity index is a measure of how serious those crimes are.

So a city may have a lot of shoplifting and vandalism, and place high in the crime severity index. But another city may have a lot of arsons and shootings, and be Number One in the violent crime severity index.

We're that second city. We're tops. Numero Uno. Nobody can touch us. They measure us at twice the violent crime of the Canadian average.

Only, as we said, its worse than that.

We looked at how they create the violent crime severity index. It turns out they give "weights" to the various crimes, then average them out. So that possession of marijuana gets a 7 count while murder gets a 7000.

The weighting depends on how judges sentence offenders.

"The specific weight for any given type of offence consists of two parts. The first component is the incarceration rate for that offence type. This is the proportion of people convicted of the offence who are sentenced to time in prison. The second component is the average (mean) length of the prison sentence, in days, for the specific type of offence." Stats Canada

In short, the easier the judges, the lower the weight given to crimes. So that when Manitoba judges give hand out one day in jail for killing someone, that lowers the average "weight" for murder.

Whenever an aboriginal offender plays his get-out-of-jail-free card given him by the Supreme Court, it lowers the average "weight" for his crime.

And when it comes to crime by juveniles, why bother? All those probation orders for car theft handed out by Manitoba judges don't count for a thing. Even "deferred custody", whatever that is, is treated "as non-incarceral in the model" states Statistics Canada. In short, all the murders, muggings, break-ins, and, yes, arsons, committed by juveniles in Winnipeg don't mean a thing because the most severe sentence a judge can impose is 3 years in jail for first degree murder.

A weighting of 7000? Forget it. Try 0.7.

And----wait for it---- it's actually worse than that.

Stats Canada releases another report on crime every five years. They hate it. The liberal bureaucrats do their best to minimize the findings because it contradicts the myth they want to propagate, namely that crime is falling and there's no need for the Conservatives' tough-on-crime legislation. Here's how the Stats Canada crowd describes their own report:

"Every five years Statistics Canada releases self-reported victimization data from the General Social Survey (GSS), which measures people's perceptions of their experiences of crime for eight offences. The GSS captures information on self-reported incidents of criminal victimization, whether or not they are reported to police. The most recent victimization data were published in September 2010."

Got that? "People's perceptions of their experience."

So remember, the next time someone breaks into your house or your car, that's only your "perception" of crime according to the Stats Canada bureaucrats.

But they can't escape what the report shows.

"According to the 2009 GSS, about 7.4 million Canadians, or just over one-quarter of the population aged 15 years and older,reported being a victim of a criminal incident in the preceding 12 months."

Manitoba tops the list of provinces. The Stats Canada survey indicates that 175 of every 1000 people in the province were victims of one of the eight crimes canvassed: sexual assault, robbery, physical assault, break and enter, motor vehicle/parts theft, theft of household property, vandalism and theft of personal property.

We're so far ahead of the everyone else on the chart (second place was Saskatchewan at 159 per thousand) that if it gets much worse they'll have to create one chart for all the other cities and a separate chart just for Winnipeg.

And remember, that's only eight crimes. Arson doesn't make the list. Does getting your house sprayed in a drive-by shooting count, as vandalism, maybe? And if your 14-year-old son or 13-year-old daughter gets mugged or shot or run down in a stolen car, its an invisible crime to bureaucrats.

Only the damage is real. The physical damage and the emotional damage.

Winnipeg leads the country in criminal violence even when the statisticians do their best to minimize the severity of crimes.

And the number of crimes reported to police doesn't come close to the number of victims.

People have given up calling the police. It's comical to see Winnipeg police spokesman Jason Michalyshen advise people, now that violent crime has erupted in the suburbs, to call whenever they see anything suspicious. Residents of the North End and Inner City have been doing that for years and getting the brush-off from police.

You want a taste of the frustration of real people, not the sugar coating of the police spokesman? Read the blog A Day in the Hood. Here's a sample:

Monday, July 11, 2011
When Is Criminal Behaviour Not Criminal Behavior?

Well, I am sorry to say, I am not over this issue yet.
We had a bit of an incident yesterday, with an intoxicated individual busting through the neighbours hedge and attempting to open a window with his keys. This was followed by the Police advising me that no crime was committed. And the landlord wanted to know what I expected her to do about it.

Let me re-word this.
What if this happened in Charleswood?
What if an extremely intoxicated individual was seen breaking his way through a thick hedge in your neighbours property? What if you heard him snapping branches and struggling to get through the hedge? What if he made his way into the neighbours yard?
Answer: vandalism, public intoxication, trespassing
What if this intoxicated trespassing vandal proceeded to go the window of the next house over and try to cut the screen open with his keys? What if he kept trying to pry the window open? What if you knew the only person on the lease of the suite from that house was a female?
Answer: attempted break and enter
What if this same intoxicated person left the yard and moved to the back yard of the property he was trying to get into? What if he wandered around the yard for a while? And, what if he finally got into his truck and drove off?
Answer: public intoxication, driving while under the influence
What if this same person came back, crashing his truck into the fence in the yard he drove into? What if he was still intoxicated? What if he decided to pass out in his truck to wait for the person who lived there to come home and open the door?
Answer: driving while under the influence, property damage, public intoxication
So, why are all of these things allowed to happen in the North End?

Regarding the Police:
Why did the Police on the phone tell me no crime was committed when I told her about the hedge, the trespassing, the attempted break and enter and the individual wondering in the back yard of the residence he tried to get into? Why did the person tell me they probably live there?
And, of course, there's the mighty press that's raising a hue and cry about the arsons in the suburbs. Here's how they treated the same story in the North End.

There was the fire in my dumpster. Then the fire in the dumpster down the street, in the dumpster that I ordered in, so garbage would not be placed on the ground behind that one house. Then the couch and back of a porch on a house in the lane. And now, the neighbours dumpster.

Those are the fires I am aware of, the ones I noticed, in my one back lane on a single block in the North End of Winnipeg.

A Free Press reported, William Burr, contacted me last week, after I wrote my blog entry Fires Running Rampant ... In Crescentwood?. He was going to come into the North End and take a tour of the area I talked about, the three short blocks that had seven fires within three months, that I was aware of. The reporter said he would have to get the 'ok' from his Editor. And we all know what the editor said ..... "not news worthy". It didn't surprise me one bit that North End fires are not 'news worthy' to the Press.

I also contacted 311 to see if I could get stats on the number of arsons taking place since April 1 from Redwood to Mountain, Main to McGregor (about the same area as stated in the Free Press article on Arsons in Crescentwood). They said to contact the Police, so I did.

Still waiting for a reply...

Popular posts from this blog

The unreported bombshell conspiracy evidence in the Trudeau/SNC-Lavelin scandal

Wow. No, double-wow. A game-changing bombshell lies buried in the supplementary evidence provided to the House of Commons Judiciary Committee by former Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould. It has gone virtually unreported since she submitted the material almost a week ago. As far as we can find, only one journalist-- Andrew Coyne, columnist for the National Post--- has even mentioned it and even then he badly missed what it meant, burying it in paragraph 10 of a 14 paragraph story. The gist of the greatest political scandal in modern Canadian history is well-known by now. It's bigger than Adscam, the revelation 15 years ago that prominent members of the Liberal Party of Canada and the party itself funneled tens of millions of dollars in kickbacks into their own pockets from federal spending in Quebec sponsoring ads promoting Canadian unity. That was just venal politicians and a crooked political party helping themselves to public money. The Trudeau-Snc-Lavalin scandal is

Manitoba Hydro is on its deathbed. There, we said it.

Manitoba Hydro is on its deathbed. Oh, you won't find anyone official to say it. Yet . Like relatives trying to appear cheery and optimistic around a loved one that's been diagnosed with terminal cancer, the people in power are in the first stage of grief -- denial. The prognosis for Hydro was delivered three weeks ago at hearings before the Public Utilities Board where the utility was seeking punishingly higher rates for customers in Manitoba. It took us this long to read through the hundred-plus pages of transcript, to decipher the coded language of the witnesses, to interpret what they were getting at, and, finally, to understand the terrible conclusion.  We couldn't believe it, just as, we're sure, you can't--- so we did it all again, to get a second opinion, so to speak.  Hydro conceded to the PUB that it undertook a massive expansion program--- involving three (it was once four) new dams and two new major powerlines (one in the United States)---whi

Crips and Bloodz true cultural anchors of Winnipeg's aboriginal gangs

(Bebo tribute page to Aaron Nabess on the right, his handgun-toting friend on the left) At least six murder victims in Winnipeg in the past year are linked to a network of thuglife, gangster rap-styled, mainly aboriginal street gangs calling themselves Crips and Bloods after the major black gangs of L.A. The Black Rod has been monitoring these gangs for several months ever since discovering memorial tributes to victim Josh Prince on numerous pages on, a social networking website like Myspace and Facebook. Josh Prince , a student of Kildonan East Collegiate, was stabbed to death the night of May 26 allegedly while breaking up a fight. His family said at the time he had once been associated with an unidentified gang, but had since broken away. But the devotion to Prince on sites like Watt Street Bloodz and Kingk Notorious Bloodz (King-K-BLOODZ4Life) shows that at the time of his death he was still accepted as one of their own. Our searches of Bebo have turned up another five ga

Nahanni Fontaine, the NDP's Christian-bashing, cop-smearing, other star candidate

As the vultures of the press circle over the wounded Liberal Party of Manitoba, one NDP star candidate must be laughing up her sleeve at how her extremist past has escaped the scrutiny of reporters and pundits. Parachuted into a safe NDP seat in Winnipeg's North End, she nonetheless feared a bruising campaign against a well-heeled Liberal opponent.  Ha ha.  Instead, the sleepy newspeeps have turned a blind eye to her years of vitriolic attacks on Christianity, white people, and police. * She's spent years  bashing Christianity  as the root cause of all the problems of native people in Canada. * She's called for  a boycott of white businesses . * And with her  Marxist research partner, she's  smeared city police as intransigent racists . Step up Nahanni Fontaine, running for election in St. John's riding as successor to the retiring Gord Macintosh. While her male counterpart in the NDP's galaxy of stars, Wab Kinew, has responded to the controversy over

Exposing the CBC/WFP double-team smear of a hero cop

Published since 2006 on territory ceded, released, surrendered and yielded up in 1871 to Her Majesty the Queen and successors forever. Exposing the CBC/FP double-team smear of a hero cop Some of the shoddiest journalism in recent times appeared this long August weekend when the CBC and Winnipeg Free Press doubled teamed on a blatant smear of a veteran city police officer. In the latest example of narrative journalism these media outlets spun stories with total disregard for facts that contradicted the central message of the reports which, simplified, is: police are bad and the system is covering up. Let's start with the story on the taxpayer funded CBC by Sarah Petz that can be summed up in the lead. "A February incident where an off-duty Winnipeg officer allegedly knocked a suspect unconscious wasn't reported to the province's police watchdog, and one criminologist says it shows how flawed oversight of law enforcement can be." There you have it. A policeman, not

Winnipeg needs a new police chief - ASAP

When did the magic die? A week ago the Winnipeg police department delivered the bad news---crime in the city is out of control. The picture painted by the numbers (for 2018) was appalling. Robberies up ten percent in  a single year.  (And that was the good news.) Property crimes were up almost 20 percent.  Total crime was 33 percent higher than the five year average. The measure of violent crime in Winnipeg had soared to a rating of 161.  Only four years earlier it stood at 116. That's a 38 percent deterioration in safety. How did it happen? How, when in 2015 the police and Winnipeg's police board announced they had discovered the magic solution to crime? "Smart Policing" they called it.    A team of crime analysts would pore through data to spot crime hot-spots and as soon as they identified a trend (car thefts, muggings, liquor store robberies) they could call in police resources to descend on the problem and nip it. The police