With a new leader and a successful annual general meeting under their belts, the Party had surged up the polls to heights unheard of since 1995. At 23 percent of popular support in the March poll by Probe Research, the Liberals were barking at the ankles of the ruling NDP (28 percent), a far cry from their 7.5 percent showing in the last provincial election (2011).
Then Trudeau announced in May that the federal Liberals were henceforth the official pro-abortion party of Canada and anyone opposing abortion was an enemy of the state.
Poof. Support for the Manitoba Liberals dropped seven percentage points by the June polling. (And even that was bolstered by the anomaly of 28 percent support in Southwest Winnipeg.)
The bright horizon predicted for Liberals under Leader Rana Bokhari suddenly became a pipe dream, with another trip to the sub-basement of political hell more likely.
While the Winnipeg Free Press tries to spin the poll results as a modest comeback for the NDP from their worst standing, the newspaper fails to point out that the undecided vote dropped from 20 percent to 13. Voters' opinions have hardened.
The only movement hereon is in how many voters are chased away by Justin Trudeau and whether they'll find refuge in another party or sit on the sidelines.
The NDP cannot be heartened by the fine details of the election poll. The Progressive Conservatives are ahead in almost every category, showing that even the bedrock NDP support has begun to erode:
The NDP is competitive only with female voters under age 55, where the results are within the poll's margin of error in their favour.