Six weeks away from an election for mayor of Winnipeg, a poll showed that eight out of ten voters were looking for someone other than the incumbent to fill the post. After four years in office, Bowman had the support of barely 22 percent of decided electors.
But with the undecided measuring at 57 percent, the poll was meaningless. The polling company, Probe Research, should be ashamed to have even released such a perverted measure of opinion.
Three weeks later, a (heavily manipulated) poll (more about that in a minute) showed that Bowman's support had grown to 34 percent, or roughly three voters in ten. This time the pollsters claimed they could peer deep into the undecideds ( 39 percent of those polled) and detect that Bowman's support was actually 61 percent.
Given that his main opponent's support had barely climbed from 11 percent to 15 percent among decided voters, Bowman should have been taking a victory lap. But a poll with 39 percent undecided is as bogus as one with 57 percent undecided. Nobody knows that better than Bowman.
When first running for mayor in 2014 against Judy Wasylycia-Leis, the polls had the election a toss-up, too close to call, even-stephen right up to election day. Bowman won taking 45 percent of the vote to JustJudy's 25.
So, had all that insane grinning. All those selfies. All that posing and pandering and Pride parade marches been for naught?
Perhaps if Bowman wasn't such a failure as mayor, his standing would be higher.
He certainly can't run on his record. And he's shown by his campaign for re-election that he has nothing left to offer.
After four years of Brian Bowman at the helm, Winnipeg is a shithole. Not figuratively. Literally. There's a team of up to 16 people that hits the streets of downtown Winnipeg every day to wash away the shit and piss left in storefronts, yards, and bus shelters by the army of so-called homeless.
We practically fell out of our chairs when we heard this. Bowman was a chairman of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, for crying out loud, and he let this happen?
Crime is at the top of every elector's list of concerns again. Did you ever think you would live in a city where thieves just walk into liquor stores, help themselves to as many bottles as they can carry, and waltz out of the store unmolested and totally unafraid of being arrested?
River Heights started an on-line Broken Windows Club where residents exchange accounts of auto break-ins, garage break-ins, and rampant bicycle thefts.
One bus driver has been murdered and a transit supervisor was actually dragged off a bus in downtown Winnipeg and savagely beaten by one of the roving gangs of homicidal thugs that roam the city. Police have actually warned people to avoid certain no-go zones in the city because of the danger of these gangs.
Bowman's approach? His hand-picked choice as finance chairman on the city's Executive Policy Committee, I'M-MARTY-MORANTZ-AND-I'M-A-LAWYER, declared that Winnipeg had too many police. He's not running for reelection.
We're told there's a meth epidemic ravaging the city. Bowman dropped the word meth into his State of the City 2018 address exactly once--- to say police would work to solve the problem.
It's almost as if current Mayor Brian Bowman just doesn't care about the city. And, the more we thought about it, the clearer it got.
He doesn't care about Winnipeg 2018 or 2019 or 2020.
This certainly isn't the city he promised when he first ran for mayor. Then, he talked about building a city for the future, a city for one million citizens, a city stitched together by six rapid transit corridors from one end to the other carrying happy commuters to work and play. In other words---he had a vision.
Unfortunately, a little something called reality derailed him.
He's got nothing this time around. His lackluster campaign demonstrates the well is empty.
After hiking taxes steadily for four years, along with frontage levys and water-and-sewer rates, he's---wait for it---promising to raise taxes higher if elected.
He promises a new recreation facility in Waverly West, to spend a whopping $100,000 on crime prevention, and to create a list---yes, an actual list---of bylaws to update or scrap.
He's throwing out promises on the fly. When his closest opponent makes a transit announcement, he does too. Scrap a needed new roof for a bus garage and promise heated bus shelters. And a new bus pass for low-income riders. The cost to the city? Don't know. The cost of the pass? Don't know. When would it roll out? Don't know.
Bowman is counting on the name-recognition and momentum of an incumbent to carry him back into the mayor's chair. That and the shambolic campaign of Jenny Motkaluk, his strongest challenger. (more about that next time)
Before leaving, we must discuss the 'Bowman 61' poll which falls under the heading Fake News.
Why don't we start with the story as it appeared in the Winnipeg Free Press, one of the originators of the poll.
Incumbent mayoral candidate Brian Bowman has reason to smile based on recent poll numbers.
by Aldo Santin
Incumbent Brian Bowman has built a huge lead over his closest mayoral competitor — with just three weeks left in the election.
Bowman has the support of 61 per cent of decided respondents, compared with 28 per cent for his closest rival, Jenny Motkaluk, a new Probe poll commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg has found.
Or we can look at the headline on the CTV story:
Over 60% of decided Winnipeggers planning to vote for Bowman: survey
The poll did NOT find that Bowman had "the support of 61 percent of decided respondents."
Bowman had the support of 34 percent of decided voters.
Another 39 percent were undecided; Probe asked them which candidate for mayor were they leaning toward and 44 percent of them said Bowman.
Now, 44 percent of 39 percent equals 17.16. That means that when you add the leaning undecideds to the decided voters, Bowman's support stands at 51 percent---NOT 61 percent.
Professional reporters at work.